Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 194.383793 232.046568 277.361387 336.611230 413.105111 510.040813 6.446613e+02
2025-09-07 157.509220 205.211281 269.734410 366.107112 511.417151 731.357117 1.108988e+03
2025-09-14 129.841305 179.185876 251.413534 369.950419 570.684417 920.825838 1.643591e+03
2025-09-21 113.326148 163.681478 242.230079 381.701627 643.093699 1162.812596 2.451607e+03
2025-09-28 98.789222 147.694929 227.807130 379.210058 687.629622 1374.210126 3.392835e+03
2025-10-05 93.107137 144.410131 233.006491 412.441135 814.732456 1841.309938 5.613324e+03
2025-10-12 87.434156 139.948412 234.891675 439.428547 940.544367 2401.723522 9.220856e+03
2025-10-19 81.772376 134.464375 233.592311 459.182959 1058.817753 3048.097925 1.503628e+04
2025-10-26 76.156548 128.143557 229.353203 471.072109 1162.918848 3758.855451 2.427401e+04
2025-11-02 70.553996 121.025143 222.168829 473.977423 1243.464757 4479.930989 3.833562e+04
2025-11-09 64.581220 112.416764 210.431066 462.475227 1273.955204 5026.712935 5.589080e+04
2025-11-16 59.388385 104.742414 199.546942 450.632309 1299.210631 5599.431029 8.249091e+04
2025-11-23 54.512662 97.359577 188.664716 437.539198 1320.219737 6235.858781 1.273063e+05
2025-11-30 53.594810 97.995223 196.105055 478.680142 1580.864212 9054.561704 4.284398e+05
2025-12-07 50.616369 93.923021 191.837334 484.048728 1698.233872 11167.656124 1.169664e+06
2025-12-14 48.516649 91.492280 191.150722 500.650118 1883.813154 14684.672421 6.127223e+06
2025-12-21 45.654083 87.067351 184.822318 497.122309 1968.825166 17514.595041 4.121742e+07
2025-12-28 45.238336 88.064813 192.513043 544.342608 2381.020219 27948.276248 NaN
2026-01-04 44.370819 87.919028 197.189927 582.984844 2796.529711 43708.848880 NaN
2026-01-11 43.131370 86.756073 198.911584 611.431271 3188.763797 66500.519270 NaN
2026-01-18 41.592712 84.709988 197.834357 628.615547 3528.400347 97438.347227 NaN
2026-01-25 39.783502 81.824811 193.915423 632.822003 3774.625216 134548.108896 NaN
2026-02-01 37.545015 77.681472 185.745673 616.185074 3818.232503 161717.182951 NaN